Ahead of the 2019 governorship election in Imo State, a political analyst, Mr. William Okwu has predicted implosion in the All Progressive Grand Alliance, APGA and crisis in the All Progressive Congress, APC.
He said these factors are capable of denying both political parties victory in the 2019 governorship election in the State.
Okwu said the Peoples Democratic Party, PDP also lack the required political will to recapture the state saying the party have lost sufficient political goodwill to return to power.
In an interview with this newspaper at the weekend in Owerri, Okwu who is also a political scientist said a “fourth force” is likely win the polls in the state just as he waved aside insinuations that the Imo electorate will focus on individual governorship aspirants rather than political parties.
He said the antecedents of the major political parties in the State will form the yardstick for the electorate to vote for or against their governorship candidates at the 2019 elections.
He told this newspaper “A fourth force is likely to carry the day but this is dependent on inter play of certain political variables in the state. The State is known to have an unsteady political climate as we witnessed in 2007 when Ikedi Ohakim though of the Progressive Peoples Alliance, PPA became a beneficiary of the political crisis that tore the then ruling party apart.
“Governorship Candidates of other political parties stand a huge opportunity in the elections too especially new candidates on the political stage. The 2007 scenario is gradually playing out and I envisage a repeat. The Imo political climate has been constant. Nothing much has changed though there are fresh political variables which cannot be ignored as well”
He continued “However, the Imo electorate will be wary of these freshers because the people will place their emphasis on who they can trust to govern them. Trust will be a huge factor in the next elections considering their ordeal in the last six years”
Okwu added that the performance of the PDP, APGA and APC at the elections will be determined largely by how they manage their Primary, especially the guber.
He said “That is why I said I see a fourth force coming on the stage where aggrieved politicians and decampees from other political parties will run to. But that is no guarantee that a decampee to another party will carry the day. Decampees are like dented vehicles, motor mixture which no one will like to drive”
“If you look at the major political parties and assess what is presently going on, you will see that the centre may not hold before or after the Primary. The APC is a time- bomb for now.
“You can see how clash of interests is already tearing party stakeholders apart. You have Araraume who is a master in winning governorship Primaries.
“He won the guber primary in the PDP in 2006 and 2015 even though he was denied the tickets. You have Okorocha who is bent on installing a successor and we all why he wants to have his successor at all cost. You can see that there is a recipe for chaos in the APC already”
Okwu stated that APGA may also implode considering the number of governorship aspirants running to the party.
“Most of the aspirants will cry foul when a governorship candidate emerges. APGA is no longer the rag tag party we we used to have. That perception is no more but we forget that it was the rag tag status that was winning elections for the party in the past. It was the peoples party, but now it has lost that appellation. The APGA of 1999, 2006 and 2011 is not the APGA of 2018,2019” he said
He however predicted lesser political skirmishes in the PDP in the state.
“The PDP looks more organized for now. That depends on if those who lost out in the battle for the soul of the party leave for another political party. But if they remain, one can envisage sabotage in the long run. If they leave, it is no guarantee for peace” he said
“At the polls, the PDP need to work extra hard. Their chances will be influenced on who picks the guber ticket and how the candidate goes about it at the elections. It had institutonalized a share the money mentality, a kind of a culture. Is the money there to be shared in 2019. The PDP has a culture of money for vote. When the money does not come in 2019, will the people vote?
“The same goes for APGA and APC whom the electorate are cautiously watching at the moment. Has APC performed in Imo, the answer is no” he said