The Imo Awareness Coalition, IAc, a political study group based in Owerri has given its verdict on the 2019 governorship election in Imo State.
Speaking to this newspaper in an interview on Sunday, President of the Coalition, Chief Emmanuel Okwu, said based on recent political undercurrents in the State and after the conclusion of primaries by various political parties, three political parties namely the Peoples Democratic Party, PDP, the All Progressive Congress, APC and the All Progressive Grand Alliance, APGA are likely to produce the next Governor of Imo State.
Okwu said “There is no pretense that the race for Government House, Owerri is now a three horse race. More than nine political parties have produced governorship candidates but from all indications the next Governor of Imo State will come from either the PDP, APC and APGA. This does not foreclose the emergence of a fourth force
“The political dynamics in the State at the moment favour the three political parties and their candidates.
“There are primary and secondary considerations in addition to emerging political factors that will determine who the next governor of Imo State will be. It is a three horse race between APGA, APC and PDP.
“But I must say that other parties are just to weak to jump start the Imo electorate for support except they do that before December
“We are keeping a close tab on the new APGA which may collapse into another party. If all the aspirants in the New APGA move enmasse to another party and harmoniously come up with a consensus candidate, then that party is the party to watch too
“But if the aspirants go solo and join various parties on their own, we may end up having more governorship candidates that may not really influence the political tide when the elections come up in 2019
“The APC is yet to finally settle the issue of who is its governorship candidate. Whoever is the candidate, either Uche Nwosu or Senator Hope Uzodinma or any candidate by consensus arrangement, the APC is certainly in the running for Government House, Owerri in 2019.
“Despite the poor rating of the party and the internal skirmishes, the APC in Imo cannot be wished away. As the ruling party, it posses both conventional and unconventional means to win elections. Ekiti and Osun States are recent case studies. There is nothing to point at the fact that it cannot retain the State.
Mr Okwu continued “The Peoples Democratic Party, PDP, is next in tow. It is the leading opposition party in Imo State and 2019 is its finest moment. The party can make gainful harvest of the crisis in APGA and the seeming poor rating of the APC to make an impact at the election.
“Emeka Ihedioha, the party’s governorship candidate is experienced and has been on trail for a long time.. But he has a lot of work to do before the election. His party will be facing tough opposition from the ruling party
“The PDP in Imo State knows it will be heading into political oblivion if it fails to dethrone the APC. It is on the verge of suffering fatal political bruise if it fails to regain power in 2019
“The Party will seemingly go into oblivion if its candidate, Emeka Ihedioha fails to win the governorship of the State in 2019. The party is earnestly yearning for power and any further loss will lead to near eclipse of the party. For the PDP to reinvent itself in Imo, Ihedioha has to win the governorship of the State. And this is only possible depending on a lot of political variables.This is not mission impossible but a lot is involved” Mr Okwu explained
Okwu said APGA before the primaries was in pole position to glue together over 70% of the Imo electorate to win the governorship election but all that has changed considerably now. There is so much anger in the party now
“APGA was like a moving train. I had predicted this implosion in the party sometime ago and with the manner it handled its primary, it has weakened the party. Araraume, its governorship candidate, has to work very hard to reinvent the party if APGA will stand a chance in the polls next year
“APGA in Imo State is now weak and it will be difficult for the party to come out of its present turbulence. This can affect its chances at the elections in 2019. This does not however remove the fact that the cock party is a major contender for 2019 Imo governorship
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The ICA President pointed out that its analysis of the political dynamics in Imo State at the moment also depends on other key factors such as zoning and yet to unfold political developments from now to January 2019.
“A lot will unfold from now to 2019. We are not foreclosing our analysis on the 2019 elections in Imo at the moment.
“We foresee two or three other political parties and their candidates making surprise in road in the political chessboard of the State before the elections” he said.
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