- The race for Okigwe senate seat is a three horse race
BY RALPH EJIMKOMYE, CONSTANCE EKE
Voter apathy, internal rumblings, over Primaries within the fold of two leading political parties, the All Progressive Congress, APC and the Peoples Democratic Party, PDP, among other factors, will to a considerable extent shape the outcome of Okigwe senate bye election in Imo State.
This is aside other seen and unseen factors, unpredictable mood swing of voters, intrigues and horse trading, political alignments and realignments which will also come into play and shape the outcome of the polls.
However, what is paramount in determining a winner for the polls, are chiefly the political parties, the candidates, and other notable players, directly or indirectly linked to the contest.
Other issues such as origin of the candidates, sub zones or areas within Okigwe zone, which are yet to produce or have produced a senator for the zone, are secondary factors which will have little or no impact on who emerges victorious at the bye elections on October 31.
Three major candidates and their political parties, Frank Ibezim (APC), Emmanuel Okewulonu (PDP), and Charles Onyirimba (APGA), are adjudged leading contenders for Okigwe Senate seat.
Mr.Patrick Ndubueze,who decamped from the PDP is flying the flag of Accord Party.
Other political parties such as Labour Party and Action Alliance, AA, are also fielding candidates for the polls but pose no threats to the chances of the big three candidates.
Voter Apathy
Analysts fear there may be voters apathy during the polls which has become a regular feature in recent elections held in the State.
This was the case during the Okigwe South Reps re run polls won by Ms Mirian Onuoha of the All Progressive Congress, APC.
Voters turn out was not impressive.
Fear of Covid 19, despite safety measures expected to be put in place by INEC, and firmly held belief by the electorate that their votes don’t count may be responsible for an expected apathy.
APC Chances Shadowy, But Bright
The internal crisis which rocked the party primary of the All Progressive Congress, APC, may cast a dark shadow on the chances of the party to comfortably take the lead in the polls.
This does not however remove the fact, that it is very likely to brace the tape of victory, considering it’s strength, capacity and ability as the “party in power” in the State to win the bye election. These factors do count as advantages to a ruling party during elections.
The APC do have rooted presence in Okigwe zone. The party has produced members of the House of Representatives- Hon.Chike Okafor and Hon Ms.Mirian Onuoha.
The party also boast of six members of the State House of Assembly including the Speaker, in addition to top government functionaries of APC extraction who come from the zone.
However, the APC is going into the polls, a divided house because of the stance of key political players in the zone, such as Senator Ifeanyi Araraume, Senator Mathew Omegara, and others who have gone to court to challenge the nomination of Frank Ibezim, as candidate of the party.
Analysts contend that the division in the party which arose over its primary will not rub off on the party’s chances in the elections.
Mr.Greg Obidike, a political analyst said “Okigwe Senate seat is up for grabs for the APC, because of its rooted presence in the zone which was sustained by the late Senator, Benjamin Uwajumuogu
“Despite Senator Araraume’s grievances over the party primary, I do not see him and other aggrieved aspirants and stakeholders working against the party candidate.
“They may be aggrieved over the process which made Ibezim the candidate, but anti party is certainly not an option for them during the polls. And this makes it possible for APC to stand a chance to ride to victory” he said.
APGA, On Ground
The All Progressive Grand Alliance, APGA, has proved to be a major contender in the contest.
And retaining Charles Onyirimba as it’s candidate, who had vied for the same position in 2019, is another added boost to the party’s chances.
Of the three frontline candidates in the race, Onyirimba is the only familiar face for the voters. Ibezim and Okewulonu of the APC and PDP respectively are rookies making their debut in the contest.
With less rancour and skirmishes within it’s fold, APGA can post an impressive performance in the polls.
The party had announced that the polls will be different ball game this time.
With considerable acceptance by the people in the zone, it has the capacity to cruise to victory but how it protects such victory is yet to be deciphered when it has weak political structures coupled with the absence of Senator Ifeanyi Araraume, who has left the party for the APC
“APGA is the weeping child of the political family in Imo State. They are always close to victory but end up losing the trophy in the end. We hope this will change for the party” Mr.Obidike said
PDP, Solid Presence, But….
The Peoples Democratic Party, PDP, is also in top flight contention for the seat. But the circumstances surrounding the emergence of Emmanuel Okewulonu as it’s candidate, is a major issue of concern within the party and this may rub off on the party’s chances.
The exit of Patrick Ndubueze from the party to Accord, may have also depleted the support base of the party in the zone and raised issues if the party is going into the polls on a strong footing.
Ndubueze was the candidate of the party in 2019. He had left the PDP, citing manipulation of the process that returned Okewulonu as winner of the party’s ticket.
Ndubueze also accused some party bigwigs of conspiring to deny him of the ticket.
However, the major backbone of it’s candidate is the close knit party structure in place which will certainly work for his success.
Barr Okewulonu will also rely on the support of party leaders, elders and other numerous supporters to sway votes for his candidature. How this translates to victory in the polls in the long run can only be imagined.
No matter the odds, the PDP candidate constitute one of the major contenders, but it remains foggy how he can navigate to victory in a race the stakes are so high.
Okewulonu is one of the rookie politicians in the contest.
Observers argue that the PDP candidate will certainly not have an easy ride in the contest.
“Having lost the Governorship to the APC via the judgement of the Supreme Court, which removed Ihedioha and brought in Hope Uzodinma, the PDP will strive to win Okigwe senate seat to serve as a boost to energize it for 2023, how achieves this feat is indeed a monumental task in the face of a ruthless challenge by the APC ” Mr.Obidike concluded.
“This is aside other seen and unseen factors, unpredictable mood swing of voters, intrigues and horse trading, political alignments and realignments which will also come into play and shape the outcome of the polls”