BY INNONEWS
There is glim hope for the three leading presidential candidates based on the number of registered voters in the country, as none of them seems to have the cutting edge over the other to win the 2023 presidential race.
Atiku Abubakar, presidential candidate of the Peoples Democratic Party, PDP, Bola Tinubu, Presidential candidate of the All Progressives Congress, APC, and Peter Obi of the labour Party, are three frontline candidates for next year’s presidential election.
Chairman, Independent National Electoral Commission, INEC, Mahmoud Yakubu, had announced last week that there are 96.2 million registered voters in the country.
The number of voters in each of the geo political zones could form the basis to speculate or predict, who is likey to win the presidential election.
However, other emerging factors, aside religion and ethnicity, have also crept in to become determinant factors for next year’s polls.
As it stands, Peter Obi, the Labour Party, LP presidential candidate, seems to have the South East zone as his major political backbone.
The South East States comprise Imo, Anambra, Enugu, Abia, and Ebonyi States. There are 11 million voters, while the other five zones raked in a total of over 84 million registered voters.
Obi has become a wave in the South East. Close observers of unfolding dynamics in the build up to the 2023 presidential election, argue that the former Anambra State Governor, will make nonsense of age long political calculations in the zone, which had shaped the outcome of presidential vote in the region for many years.
Despite the strong political taproot of the All Progressives Congress, APC and the Peoples Democratic Party, PDP, in the South East, Obi, riding on the platform of the less fancied Labour party, has become a formidable political force in the region.
His aspiration is also propelled by an aggrieved segment of Nigerian population, mainly the youths, who have made him a rallying point in their quest to effect leadership change in 2023.
Many observers believe that Obi will sweep majority of the 10 million votes in the region when the Presidential polls takes place on February 25, 2023.
The North West geo political zone, which comprises seven states of Sokoto, Zamfara, Kano, Kaduna, Katsina, Kebbi and Jigawa, have a total of 22.67 million registered voters, making the region with the highest number of voters in the country.
None of the key presidential candidates come from this region, which is Muslim dominated.
It is the zone of President Muhammadu Buhari, and it is expected that the zone would automatically go for the APC and it’s presidential and Vice Presidential candidates, Bola Tinubu and Kashim Shettima, because of Buhari’s demi god status in the region.
However, the political dynamics in the zone and the factor of one North, could sway in favour of Atiku Abubakar, who has lately strongly aligned his aspiration with the North.
Atiku had told a gathering in Kaduna recently that he is a candidate of the North. His statement was strongly criticized by close watchers of the forthcoming presidential election.
“What the average Northerner needs is somebody who’s from the North and also understands that part of the country and has been able to build bridges across the country.
“This is what the Northerner needs, it doesn’t need a Yoruba or Igbo candidate, I stand before you as a Pan- Nigerian of northern origin” he said at an event in Kaduna.
Bernard Egwu, a political analyst told INNONEWS that Atiku and the PDP played the ethnic card because they know they will not make an impact in the Southern part of the country because of the strong support Tinubu and Obi have in the South.
The South West zone comprising Oyo, Ogun, Osun, Ekiti, Lagos, and Ondo States is the political strong hold of the All Progressives Congress, APC, Bola Tinubu. The zone do have have 18.3 million registered voters.
Despite the strong presence of Christian elements averse to APC Muslim/Muslim ticket and the teeming youths, who constitute the bulk of over 13 million fresh registrants in the country, Tinubu is very much likey to win the votes in the region.
The South- South zone, where there is no visible or strong presidential candidate, have about 15m voters.
Analyst say the zone could be the deciding factor in the presidential race, despite the fact the PDP Vice Presidential candidate and Delta State Governor, Ifeanyi Okowa, comes from the zone.
Obi could leverage on the proximity between the South East and the South- South zone to win most of the votes particularly among the youths.
The political move of Rivers State Governor, Nyesom Wike, before the 2019 presidential election, may also influence the voting pattern of the zone.
Despite the fact the zone is mainly controlled by the PDP, the majority of voters in the region who are mainly youths and key adherents of the Obidients movement, could swing things in favour of Obi.
The PDP and Atiku Abubakar are most likey to also secure huge chunk of the votes in the region, because of it’s strong political taproot in the zone for decades.
The North Central zone comprising Plateau, Benue, Nassarawa, Kogi, Taraba and the FCT, do have 14.1 million voters.
The Christian elements in the region who are proportional to the Muslim voters, may vote for Obi. But it is certainly a shopping ground for Atiku and Tinubu.
The North East have 12. 8 million voters. This is the zone of Atiku, but he has pro Shettima forces in the region to contend with. Though Atiku is expected to sweep majority of the votes, states such as Borno( home State of Shettima) and Yobe have remained perennial APC States, and are likely to swing towards Tinubu and the APC.
Who Is Favoured In The Contest?
Based on these permutations, none of the three leading presidential candidates have the cutting edge to win the presidential election in February 2023.
Tinubu may win in two zones, South West and North West, with in-road in the North East, while Atiku and PDP is also expected to garner the votes in the North East, pick some in the South South and partially in the North Central.
Peter Obi will sweep the votes in the South East and South South, and make a huge in road in the North Central zone.
However, the over 5 million youths newly registered voters, could be Obi’s trump card in an election expected to shaped by other political variables aside religion and ethnicity.
INNONEWS
