As Nigeria inches closer to the 2027 presidential election, political permutations are thickening, and the odds appear increasingly stacked against President Bola Tinubu.
With the possible re-entry of former President Goodluck Jonathan, the unrelenting ambition of Atiku Abubakar, the constant popularity of Peter Obi, and the northern grip of Rabiu Kwankwaso, analysts say Tinubu’s chances of winning re-election are less than 50 percent — if the polls are free, fair, and credible.
This verdict came from three political analysts — Arinze Nneji, Jerry Nwokoro, and Godspower Ibe — who featured on INNONEWS Political Roundtable, Politics Now.
They argued that while Tinubu may retain strong support in the South-West, his political base may not be enough to guarantee victory in the face of what they described as “a looming four-way contest that could upend Nigeria’s political map in 2027.”
According to the analysts, Tinubu’s greatest challenge will come from the North — the same region that propelled him to victory in 2023.
“The North is politically restless. Kwankwaso’s refusal to abandon the NNPP means Tinubu will face a divided northern electorate, especially in Kano, where the NNPP has entrenched itself as a formidable force,” said Arinze Nneji.
The analysts noted that Atiku Abubakar, who is expected to emerge as the presidential candidate of the ADC, remains a major threat. Historically, the North has never abandoned one of its own during a general election.
“Tinubu’s economic policies have hit the North hardest. Inflation, food insecurity, and the naira’s decline have deepened poverty. The region’s patience is wearing thin,” observed Jerry Nwokoro.
The possible entry of Goodluck Jonathan into the race, they argued, would dramatically alter the complexion of the contest.
“With twelve governors in the PDP, Jonathan’s comeback would shake the foundation of the political establishment. It’s the reason the Presidency reportedly panicked when Prof. Jerry Gana hinted that Jonathan could return as the PDP’s flagbearer,” Godspower Ibe noted.
Presidential spokesman, Bayo Onanuga, in a swift response to Gana’s comment, reminded Nigerians that Jonathan’s administration “ran the economy aground.” But the analysts countered that many Nigerians remember Jonathan differently — as a democratic leader who invested in human capital, including the much-lauded almajiri schools in the North.
If Jonathan runs, his entry could galvanize the South-South and part of the North.
“The Niger Delta still views Jonathan as a symbol of inclusion. His presence on the ballot will reclaim a region that largely backed Tinubu in 2023 due to the PDP’s internal crisis.” Nwokoro said
Peter Obi’s potential candidacy under the Labour Party would also play a decisive role. The analysts agree that Obi would sweep the South-East overwhelmingly and draw strong sympathy votes among urban youths and professionals across Nigeria.
“The 2023 movement that powered Obi is far from dead. If properly mobilized, it could once again upset traditional voting blocs,” Ibe stated.
The 2027 race, therefore, risks becoming a regional contest — Jonathan dominating the South-South, Obi owning the South-East, Tinubu holding the South-West, and Atiku and Kwankwaso battling for the North.
This fragmentation, analysts warn, could force a runoff — a scenario that would test the strength of alliances and expose Nigeria’s fragile party system.
Another factor working against Tinubu is the harsh economic reality under his administration. The removal of fuel subsidy, currency floatation, and biting inflation have eroded his popularity.
“Reforms that are not felt positively by the people are political liabilities. Tinubu may have good intentions, but perception is everything in politics,” said Nneji.
Analysts say the President’s best hope lies in rebuilding public trust, reining in economic hardship, and reaching out to northern stakeholders who feel alienated by his policies. Without that, even his famed political machinery may not be enough to deliver victory in 2027.
