In every democratic polity with heterogeneous setting, power rotation is an inevitable mechanism that reliably enroots and fastens democratic development. It entails equitable rotation of the various arms of government amongst the individual geopolitical divides in the polity. In same vein, all leadership positions that are elective or appointive must revolve round such geopolitical divides. This has great developmental benefits. It fosters peace and unity, and to great somewhat ensures even distribution of dividends of democracy. It plays the accommodative cannon, wherein every component geopolitical divide receives adequate sense of belonging and co-participates in the leadership and building of the polity.
Though power is taken and not given, the idea of survival of the fittest as power-obtainment, ploy greatly impinges on pragmatic equity in power rotation in the multifaceted geopolitical divides in Nigeria. It fans the embers of domination and marginalization of some segments over others and thus the major cause of various agitations across the country by the marginalized and minority groups. The worst is with the Igbos/South easterners that are today punitively vanquished and marginalized in memory of their secessionist attempt that ended in “no victor, no vanquish.” But if truly “the war” has ended and with ‘no victor, no vanquish,’ why are Igbos marginalized still half a decade after the war?
How can Igbos/Southeasterners be assuaged? How can the wounds of the war be healed? How does Nigeria intend to prove to Igbos/Southeasterners that the ‘no victor, no vanquish” declared after the war and the acclaimed national oneness of all geopolitical divides (as a federated State), when obvious institutionalized marginalization permanently denies them reach to the apex leadership positions of the country?
Come 2023 and in accordance with the gentleman’s agreement among the Southern and Northern Nigeria in 1998, power must rotate to the Southern Nigeria, and since the Southwest and South-South have taken their own shots to the Presidency since 1999, “to-be-and-not-to-be” is the question. Will a Southeasterner be the next President of Nigeria or not? What do Igbos need to do? What are the prospects and challenges facing the project of the Nigerian President of Igbo extraction come 2023? These and many more are x-rayed in the paper.
At the onset of the Fourth Republic, the Igbos fluffed a golden opportunity to produce a Nigerian President of Igbo extraction when they betrayed the late Alex Ekwueme at the PDP convention in Jos in 1998. At that time, he was in a pole-position to emerge as the PDP Presidential candidate in the run-up to the 1999 Presidential election. Had he won that PDP Presidential ticket, he would have become the president of Nigeria as PDP was the most formidable political party in Nigeria, but his Igbo compatriots who were top members of PDP sold him down the river for pecuniary and selfish reasons. Should this intra-ethnic hatred spring for any reason come 2023, the dream of a Nigerian President of Igbo extraction of from the Southeast will be impossible to realize.
First of all, I want to argue against the agitation for ‘Igbo Presidency.’ It is parochial and vast, and thus subsumes the Igbos in the South-South (Akwa-Ibom, Rivers, Delta and Edo States), which geopolitical zone has had its turn in the Presidency (for 3 years as Vice President and 5 years as President). What we should be talking is the ‘Nigerian President of Igbo extraction’ or from the ‘Southeast Zone.’ And it is a national project that needs the support of other zones of the federation, and implies that the Southeast must work hard (in lobbying, canvassing and consultations) and also seek the cooperation of all Igbos from the South-South zone, as we collectively did for President Jonathan.
To this effect, it is exigent that the two major political parties in Nigeria: the ruling party- APC and the former ruling party- the PDP, have to feature their Presidential candidates from the Southeast and make choices of the Vice Presidential candidates from the Northeast or North-Central. Though the northern Nigeria tends more parochial in their politicking, as it is alleged that there was a gentleman’s agreement between the northern APC and PDP leaders for Atiku to shield his sword in 2019 and await 2023, when they will ensure a northern will be the next President of Nigeria. Such rumour defiles the zoning and power-shift agreement between the two former Protectorates, and none of them can win two-third majority of total votes cast across the 36 States without the other, and no political party without fruitful widespread and coalition in the multiparty system Nigeria operates, can win two-third majority of votes cast across the Federation. The rumour has it that the northern APC and PDP are to liaise to produce a PDP candidate from the North, most probably, Atiku or a Fulani (which is their target and not party). Their interest is the ethnic grip of power and not political party’s grip, the Northern grip and not party grip.
The rotational presidency to Southeast has several political values for the wellbeing of Nigeria. It makes power rotation among the two Protectorates stable, and ensures equity in the internal power-shift amidst the component three geopolitical zones in them. Just as power shifted to the North twice and the North-Central has not been opportune to have the President or Vice President, power shifted to the South twice and the Southwest had its full with a President and Vice President for 8 years each and the South-South had same for 5 and 3 years, the Southeast has not had a turn to either of. Now power will return to the South, the Nigerian President of Southeast extraction would assure the sense of self-belonging to the Southeast and Igbos in general, which obvious lack of it is allegedly the cause of the still agitation for secession by socio-cultural groups in the Igbo land.
There are ongoing rumours making round the country that some politicians from the Northern, Southwest and South-south are making serious preparations for the 2023 presidency, together with series of marginalization of the Igbos in certain vital positions in Nigeria, instigate the agitations of IPOB, MASSOB, etc.[4] Thus, it behooves the agitation of the Southeast Nigeria for the emergence of the Nigerian President of Southeast extraction in the forthcoming 2023 democratic dispensation.
This turn however makes it the third time the presidency comes to the southern Nigeria, and with its 3 geopolitical zones: Southwest, Southeast and South-South, only the Southeast has not produced the President and Vice President of Nigeria. The Southwest has produced Obasanjo and Osibanjo as Presidents and Vice for 8 years each, and the South-south has produced Jonathan as Vice President for 3 years and as President for 5 years. Chris Njoku et al,[5] like other sociopolitical analysts to this effect predict a clash between the major ethnic groups and geopolitical zones in the Southern Nigeria which are going to slug it out as power returns as expected.
Two series of huddles must be past for the Southeast Presidency realization. First, the collective efforts of the Southern Nigeria in ensuring that power returns to the South, then the huddle of struggling it out amongst the geopolitical zones in the South. There is no gainsaying the fact that it is the turn of the southeast to produce the President of Nigeria, and there is the need to shift its choice of the Vice President away from the Northwest, and choose precisely from the North-central or if it is not feasible, from the Northeast. The justice done to this power-shift come 2023 will determine the choice of the North-Central or North-East in the production of the Nigeria President come 2031, which choice of Vice President ought to be from the Southeast as both Southwest and South-South have all produced Vice Presidents. With President Buhari, the northern turn for the Presidency is put to hold till 2031, and it is unconscientiously inequitable for any Southwestern or South-Southern politician to eye the 2023 presidential shift to the southern Nigeria.
“Come 2023 and in accordance with the gentleman’s agreement among the Southern and Northern Nigeria in 1998, power must rotate to the Southern Nigeria, and since the Southwest and South-South have taken their own shots to the Presidency since 1999, “to-be-and-not-to-be” is the question. Will a Southeasterner be the next President of Nigeria or not? What do Igbos need to do? What are the prospects and challenges facing the project of the Nigerian President of Igbo extraction come 2023? These and many more are x-rayed in the paper”
