The death of former President Muhammadu Buhari has sent shockwaves through Nigeria’s political landscape, but nowhere will the aftershocks be felt more than within the ruling All Progressives Congress (APC). Buhari was not just a politician; he was a phenomenon in northern Nigeria.
For two decades, he stood as the rallying figure for millions of voters, commanding a near-unshakable base of 12 million “bankable votes” at every election. Now that he is gone, the APC faces a troubling question: who in the North has the political capital and cult-like following to deliver those votes for President Bola Tinubu in 2027?
At every turn in his political career, Buhari’s name carried enormous weight. From his first presidential run in 2003 through his eventual victory in 2015, Buhari’s popularity among ordinary northerners was unmatched. He ran five times, losing in 2003, 2007, and 2011, but winning in 2015 by defeating incumbent President Goodluck Jonathan in a historic upset. His 12 million core votes were not just numbers; they were the heartbeat of northern political loyalty to Buhari the man—not necessarily to the APC.
This is precisely where the APC’s current dilemma lies. Buhari’s influence was not institutional; it was personal. From the talakawa in Katsina to the elites in Kano and Borno, Buhari was revered as a man of “integrity” and simplicity. People believed in him, drank water in his name, and followed him with religious devotion. But now that the Katsina patriarch is gone, who in the APC can step into his shoes to command such loyalty?
President Bola Tinubu, though a political master strategist, does not command the same emotional connection in the North. His popularity in the region was largely buoyed by Buhari’s endorsement in 2023. Today, Tinubu faces mounting discontent over harsh economic policies—fuel subsidy removal, skyrocketing inflation, and a Naira in freefall—that have plunged millions into hunger and despair. In a region where Buhari’s words were gospel, Tinubu’s acceptance rating has slumped dangerously.
To complicate matters, a new and powerful opposition coalition has emerged under the African Democratic Congress (ADC). Led by former Vice President Atiku Abubakar and former Kaduna Governor Nasir El-Rufai, the coalition is aggressively courting Buhari’s erstwhile political base. Both Atiku and El-Rufai are northern heavyweights with deep networks and understand the pulse of the region. With Buhari no longer alive to rally northern votes for the APC, it is entirely possible that the ADC could inherit a chunk of his 12 million faithfuls.
This is not mere speculation; it is political reality. Buhari’s cult-like followership was based on trust built over decades. Tinubu, for all his achievements in Lagos and political acumen, has yet to develop such organic grassroots loyalty in the North. His leadership style and southern background make it even harder to replicate Buhari’s magic in the region.
The APC’s woes deepen when you consider that many northern politicians rode to power on Buhari’s coattails. Without his towering presence, will they have the courage—or the influence—to deliver the North en masse for Tinubu? Or will they pivot to the emerging ADC coalition, sensing where the political winds are shifting?
Another complicating factor is the growing resentment in parts of the North over perceived marginalisation under Tinubu’s administration. Appointments and policy decisions have been criticized as southern-tilted, further alienating a region that feels it sacrificed much to put Tinubu in Aso Rock. Without Buhari as a unifying northern figure within the APC, those grievances could fester into full-blown defection or voter apathy.
In 2023, Buhari’s image was critical in calming northern fears about supporting a southern Muslim candidate. With him gone, Tinubu will have to work twice as hard to convince the region to stay loyal to the APC in 2027. But can he achieve this amidst biting economic hardship and a resurgent opposition coalition?
The late President Buhari may have left a controversial legacy, but one thing is certain: he was the APC’s political insurance policy in the North. His death has ripped that safety net apart. Without him, the party will have to confront a harsh new reality—northern loyalty was never to the APC brand but to the Buhari persona.
So, where will those 12 million votes go in 2027? To Tinubu and the APC? Or to Atiku, El-Rufai, and their ADC coalition? Or worse, will voter turnout in the North plummet as Buhari’s supporters retreat into political apathy, feeling no one worthy of their late hero’s mantle?
For the APC, the message is clear: without Buhari’s towering shadow, 2027 is shaping up to be their most difficult battle yet. Unless Tinubu reinvents his relationship with the North and addresses their economic pain, the ruling party may discover the hard way that Buhari’s 12 million votes died with him.
“The late President Buhari may have left a controversial legacy, but one thing is certain: he was the APC’s political insurance policy in the North. His death has ripped that safety net apart. Without him, the party will have to confront a harsh new reality—northern loyalty was never to the APC brand but to the Buhari persona”
